Jonathan Leake, Science Editor. Published: 23 December 2012
DARTS may be seen as a game of skill but the layout of the board is inherently biased towards weaker players, according to a mathematical analysis.
It has found that certain sections of the standard dartboard are strongly favoured over others and the effect is to give weaker players a higher chance of beating better ones, simply by chance.
Now David Percy, a professor of mathematics at Salford University, has come up with his own design for an “Optimal Dartboard” with the numbers laid out differently to minimise the chances of a random lucky throw. Percy’s findings are certain to prove controversial among the estimated 7m Britons who regularly play in organised darts teams, and the millions more who play in pubs and clubs.
The sport is deeply traditional and any proposals to change the way numbers are laid out could cause wide discussion.
What’s more, it comes at the height of the darts season, with the Ladbrokes World Darts Championship under way at Alexandra Palace in London and the rival British Darts Organisation world championships due to start at Lakeside Country Club, Frimley, Surrey, on January 5.
This week, however, it emerged that Percy’s arguments have been accepted by the world’s leading dartboard manufacturers which plans to make a version of Percy’s “Optimal Dartboard” in time for trials at Frimley.
In his paper, published in the obscure but learned journal Mathematics Today, Percy said his analysis was based on totting up the average scores for different sections of the board.
“The average of all the numbers on a dartboard is 10.5, so put simply, you can gain by targeting those sections where the average is higher than that.”
In darts, players typically start with a score of 301 or 501 and have to get down to zero in as few throws as possible, finishing on a double.
For a truly expert player, able to hit whatever number they choose, Percy’s new layout might make little difference. However, the best most players can hope for is to get the dart into a chosen section of the board, rather than the number of their choice so the question is: which sections score highest?
Percy said: “It means that for novice and intermediate players there is a significant chance they can outscore better rivals by targeting the left side of the board, aiming perhaps for the 12-14-9 section where the average is 11.7, or 16-7-19 sequence where the average score is 14. “The worst section of the board is the 10-6 sector where the average score is eight, and the 1-18-4 sequence where it is 7.7.”
There are other biases that favour the poorer player too - such as having the 16 and the eight next to each other - a boon for less accurate players because it raises the chances of getting the double needed for a finish.
Percy^s Optimal Dartboard would see even numbers alternating with odd
ones so that poorer players would be penalised for their mis-shots.
However, for Percy, who specialises in sporting statistics, perhaps the biggest shock lies not in his results but in the reaction to them.
He said: “I carried out this analysis as a mathematical exercise and a bit of statistical fun. I never expected it to have an impact.”
Ian Flack of Winmau, which makes most of the dartboards sold in Britain, said: “Put simply, this confirms that the layout of the board is biased to the left. So that gives a novice player a good statistical chance of beating someone who is better, just by luck. We want to trial the Optimal Dartboard at Frimley and see how people take it.”
How did the dartboard develop its wonky layout? Darts historian Patrick Chaplin has traced the numbering to Thomas Buckle, a 19th-century wire worker from Dewsbury, Yorkshire.
“Buckle used his intuition to create the modern board and did a remarkably good job as the biases are not that great,” said Chaplin. “It would be fascinating to see the impact [of the optimal board] on a competition. It would confuse everyone, even the experts, at first.”
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